How the M&A market has learned to live with volatility and what this means for deal-making in Malta
The global M&A market has entered a new era. Following a prolonged slowdown between 2022 and 2024, deal volumes and values began recovering steadily from mid-2025, and that momentum has continued into 2026. What is striking is not the pace of recovery but the conditions under which it is happening: persistent geopolitical tension, shifting trade alliances, and a fundamentally changed economic order.
The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 illustrated this reality vividly. Deal teams paused briefly, and then, within a fortnight, activity normalised. Markets absorbed the shock and moved on. It reflects a genuine recalibration: volatility is no longer the exception. It is the operating environment.
A Changed World Order
The shift runs deeper than any single crisis. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said plainly what many were thinking: “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” The old order, he declared, “is not coming back” and “nostalgia is not a strategy.” The speech resonated precisely because it named what deal-makers across every sector are already navigating: a world in which the assumptions that underpinned cross-border commerce for decades can no longer be taken for granted.
Nowhere is this more vividly illustrated than in European banking. UniCredit’s ongoing pursuit of Commerzbank, a contested and high-stakes bid launched in early 2025 and valued at approximately €35 billion, is the defining M&A story of the moment. With Commerzbank’s management resisting, the German government opposed, and resolution still some months away, the deal is a masterclass in the patience and structural creativity that modern transactions demand. Whether it completes or not, it signals clearly that transformational cross-border deals remain viable when the strategic rationale is sound and the dealmaker is prepared to stay the course.
Structured for Uncertainty
The deals being struck today look different from those of five years ago. Timelines have lengthened and buyers are demanding broader protections. Escrow arrangements are more common. Deferred consideration mechanisms, in the form of earn-outs tied to future performance, are being used to bridge valuation gaps that uncertainty makes harder to close. Minority shareholding retentions by selling founders are also more prevalent, aligning incentives and signalling continued commitment. This structural flexibility is a sign of market maturity, not weakness. Risk is being priced and allocated with greater precision, and transactions that might once have stalled are finding their way to completion.
Deal mechanics are not the only thing changing. The underlying value of the businesses being acquired is shifting too. Artificial intelligence is reshaping company valuations in ways that extend well beyond the technology sector. Across manufacturing, professional services and other traditional industries, AI is improving operational efficiency, reducing costs and driving EBITDA in ways that acquirers are paying close attention to. A business that has meaningfully integrated AI into its operations presents a different financial profile, and commands a different multiple, from one that has not.
What This Means for Malta
The same trends are visible in Malta, with some characteristics worth noting. Private equity interest in Maltese companies is growing, and the names involved are international established players with significant capital. Deal values are substantial. In a number of cases, Maltese businesses are being acquired as components of larger multinational platform strategies, becoming part of pan-European portfolios rather than standalone targets. For Maltese business owners, this is new territory: counterparties who have done this many times before, in many jurisdictions, and who will expect the same standards here.
Transactions between Maltese companies are also becoming more structured. Earn-out provisions, representations and warranties regimes, and post-closing adjustment mechanisms are appearing with greater regularity in domestic deals. The market is maturing, and with that maturity comes both greater complexity and greater opportunity. For advisers and clients who are prepared for it, the conditions are genuinely favourable.
Disclaimer: This article was first published in ‘the Sunday Times of Malta’ on 29/03/2026.
